The National Weather Service in Des Moines is warning of an increased risk for fast-spreading field fires this weekend, especially on Saturday, as unseasonably warm temperatures combine with strong winds and ongoing harvest activity.
Forecasters say wind gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour are likely across western and northern Iowa on Saturday, with some areas possibly seeing gusts over 40 mph. While humidity levels will stay higher than in past fire-weather events, dropping to near 30% in isolated areas, the combination of warmth, dryness, and strong winds will create conditions favorable for field fires.
“Any spark could rapidly ignite and spread fires in croplands, potentially keeping fire departments busy,” the Weather Service said.
Despite the heightened concern, meteorologists stopped short of issuing a Red Flag Warning. Those advisories are typically based on grassland fuels, which are still mostly green across much of the state. Field fuels, however, remain vulnerable during harvest. Areas like the Okoboji region and the Loess Hills are reporting drier grasses, but most of north-central Iowa grasslands have not yet cured enough to meet red flag criteria.
This weekend’s forecast is similar to conditions seen the first weekend of October last year, when near-record heat, dry air, and high winds fueled several field fires.
Farmers and residents are urged to use caution with any outdoor burning or equipment that could spark fires, and to remain alert throughout the weekend.
*Historical Perspective*This Saturday’s forecast shares similarities with the first October weekend last year (October 5, 2024), which had near-record high temperatures with windy and dry conditions during harvest. Historical meteorological data from that period shows that RHs in western Iowa were 5 to 15% lower than what we are forecasting for this year. The attached drone photo from @EM – Montgomery County IA – Brian Hamman is from around that date last year showing the result of a field fire.
